By LISA TANGER
Observer Staff
Jan. 23, 2008

In the world of nuclear weapons, what is not said is often as important as what is said. Iran’s neighbors have been curiously quiet in the wake of the 2007 National
Intelligence Estimate that was released by the U.S. government in early December.

The declassified report concluded with high confidence that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. One might expect neighboring countries to collectively sigh in relief now that the “crisis” between the U.S. and Iran has been diffused. Instead, these countries have said very little, indicating the nuclear issue may still be explosive.

Four of the seven countries that share a land border with Iran did not wish to speak about Iran’s nuclear ambitions for this article. The Armenian and Azeri governments formally declined interviews, and the Iraqi and Turkmen governments never responded to interview requests. Additionally, five of Iran’s other neighbors – Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman – refused to speak on record.

Graphic by www.lonelyplanet.com
Map of the Middle East

Three governments were willing to comment on the Iranian nuclear threat, all of which are United States allies: Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey. While all three said they are opposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, they also demonstrated some level of resistance to current U.S. policy in the region.

Afghanistan

The Afghan government does not see the advantage of having another nuclear armed country near its borders, according to Joshua Gross, media relations director for the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

“The hope is that these disputes will be resolved through diplomacy rather than any sort of military actions or harsh sanctions,” Gross said. “Without a dialogue, there is very little that can be done in a productive fashion to help end this impasse between the United States and Iran.”

He said the Afghan government has refrained from commenting about whether the United States is justified in its pressure on Iran, just as it has refrained from commenting on whether Iran is justified in its own actions.

Asked if Afghan citizens are concerned the United States is infringing on the national sovereignty of countries in the region, Gross said they do not consider it on an academic or philosophical level.

“After 30 years of war, there is much to be gained from the partnership both with the United States and with other nations from Europe, Asia and the Middle East,” he said. “Most Afghans are seeking to benefit from that partnership.”

Gross added that Afghan citizens are looking to the United States to provide tangible benefits in rebuilding their country, such as health clinics, wells for drinking water and irrigation systems.

Pakistan

Pakistan, a country under scrutiny for its own nuclear caché, affirmed Iran’s sovereign right to pursue nuclear technology.

“The United States should not deprive a nation which has signed the NPT from pursuing nuclear technology. If it does, it infringes upon the treaty and is acting against international law,” said M. Akram Shaheedi, press minister for the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

He was referring to Article IV of the Treaty on Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which declares it is the inalienable right of all treaty participants to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

“We urge the United States to negotiate with Iran,” Shaheedi said. The press minister said Pakistan is opposed to Iran becoming a nuclear power, but is totally against U.S. military action against Iran.

“We want to see the issue resolved peacefully,” he said.

Shaheedi said it is not possible to draw a parallel between Pakistan and Iran because Iran does not have a self-defense imperative. He said Pakistan’s nuclear program is not aggressive, imperialistic or adventurous in design.

“We began our nuclear program after India began its program in 1974, because it disturbed the whole balance of power in the region, to save Pakistan from nuclear blackmail,” he said.

“It was a question of our survival to become a nuclear power. We did not start it. If India dismantled, we would too,” Shaheedi said.

Turkey

Turkey is in a particularly difficult position in the U.S.-Iranian impasse. While it enjoys a fairly strong alliance with the United States, it also considers Iran a partner in the areas of economy, trade, security, transportation and international relations.

“We sincerely believe the region does not need an additional burden,” said a Turkish government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. He referred to Turkey’s neighbors – Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Caucasus – as “hot spots.”

Asked why it is acceptable for the United States to control the actions of countries on the other side of the world, the official said, “Weapons of mass destruction have a wider effect than on the immediate neighborhood. If a country is going to have that capability, it should be in the hands of a democratic, reliable partner.”

“Turkey’s policy is very clear,” the official continued. “First, every country should have the right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Second, Turkey does not want Iran to be a nuclear power or have weapons of mass destruction, for selfish reasons and the larger goal of greater regional stability.”

The official urged the two countries to solve the matter peacefully through dialogue. He does not agree with the Bush administration’s isolation policy, and confirmed senior Turkish officials are working to persuade Ahmadinejad to cooperate with the international community.

“I, personally, do not feel the Bush Administration will change until the end of his term. Iran is a real important actor in all of the regional and international issues, even if it is because of its nuisance value,” said the official.

He added that it is unclear what will happen in the March 2008 Iranian elections, speculating Ahmadinejad’s regime could be significantly weakened by that time.

Tensions still simmering

www.ahmadinejad.ir Photo
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president
of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The Associated Press reported that Ahmadinejad made hopeful statements following the intelligence report’s release in December.

“We consider this measure by the U.S. government a positive step. It is a step forward,” Ahmadinejad said of the intelligence estimate, according to AP reports. “If one or two other steps are taken, the issues we have in front of us will be entirely different and will lose their complexity.”

The White House reported that President Bush met with leaders from Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt during his January trip to the Middle East. Bush made statements during the trip that indicated he would not allow the Iranian nuclear issue to fade from headlines.

Photo by the White House
President Bush said the world needs to
“confront” Iran in a Jan. 13 speech.

“One cause of instability is the extremists supported and embodied by the regime that sits in Tehran… Iran’s actions threaten the security of nations everywhere,” Bush said in a Jan. 13 statement.

“So, the United States is strengthening our longstanding security commitments with our friends in the Gulf and rallying friends around the world to confront this danger before it is too late,” Bush said.

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council agreed Tuesday to propose new sanctions against Iran, but haven’t announced details.